Uncertainty & Intervals
Uncertainty & Intervals groups the core ideas a learner needs at the 9 · evaluation, metrics & diagnostics stage. Work through the lessons in order when new to the area, or use them independently as a reference when implementing an analysis.
Learn the mechanism one decision at a time
Work through the lessons in order if the topic is new. If you already know the basics, open the specific leaf lesson that matches the operation, diagnostic or failure mode you need.
1Definition→
2Mechanism→
3Example→
4Diagnostic→
5Decision
Confidence vs prediction intervalsConfidence vs prediction intervals is a practical concept within Uncertainty & Intervals. It helps turn the broader workflow stage “9 · Evaluation, Metrics & Diagnostics” into an explicit analytical decision that can be explained, implemented and checked. The concept should be understood in terms of purpose, mechanism, assumptions, evidence and downstream consequences.
02Aleatoric uncertaintyAleatoric uncertainty is a practical concept within Uncertainty & Intervals. It helps turn the broader workflow stage “9 · Evaluation, Metrics & Diagnostics” into an explicit analytical decision that can be explained, implemented and checked. The concept should be understood in terms of purpose, mechanism, assumptions, evidence and downstream consequences.
03Epistemic uncertaintyEpistemic uncertainty is a practical concept within Uncertainty & Intervals. It helps turn the broader workflow stage “9 · Evaluation, Metrics & Diagnostics” into an explicit analytical decision that can be explained, implemented and checked. The concept should be understood in terms of purpose, mechanism, assumptions, evidence and downstream consequences.
04Bootstrap intervalsBootstrap intervals is a practical concept within Uncertainty & Intervals. It helps turn the broader workflow stage “9 · Evaluation, Metrics & Diagnostics” into an explicit analytical decision that can be explained, implemented and checked. The concept should be understood in terms of purpose, mechanism, assumptions, evidence and downstream consequences.
05Bayesian predictive uncertaintyBayesian predictive uncertainty is a practical concept within Uncertainty & Intervals. It helps turn the broader workflow stage “9 · Evaluation, Metrics & Diagnostics” into an explicit analytical decision that can be explained, implemented and checked. The concept should be understood in terms of purpose, mechanism, assumptions, evidence and downstream consequences.
06Conformal predictionConformal prediction is a practical concept within Uncertainty & Intervals. It helps turn the broader workflow stage “9 · Evaluation, Metrics & Diagnostics” into an explicit analytical decision that can be explained, implemented and checked. The concept should be understood in terms of purpose, mechanism, assumptions, evidence and downstream consequences.
07Coverage and interval widthCoverage and interval width is a practical concept within Uncertainty & Intervals. It helps turn the broader workflow stage “9 · Evaluation, Metrics & Diagnostics” into an explicit analytical decision that can be explained, implemented and checked. The concept should be understood in terms of purpose, mechanism, assumptions, evidence and downstream consequences.