Evaluation, Robustness & Advanced ML

Threshold Explorer

Move a classification threshold and watch individual predictions, confusion counts, ROC and precision–recall evidence change together.

Lab concept guide

What to observe while you experiment

Thresholding turns continuous model scores into decisions. Moving the threshold changes which observations are predicted positive, which changes the confusion matrix and traces points along ROC and precision–recall curves.

MechanismMove the threshold through sorted scores and watch which individual case flips class and how TP/FP/TN/FN update.
Failure modeChoosing a threshold from the test set or assuming the threshold that maximises one generic metric matches real decision costs.
VerificationAt one threshold, manually classify several cases and reconstruct confusion counts; predict metric direction before moving the threshold.
Experiment deliberately
Choose a cost preference such as “missing positives is expensive.” Predict which direction the threshold should move and verify the resulting recall/false-positive trade-off.
Thresholds change decisions, not model scores. The same scored cases are reused while the cut-off moves from 0 to 1.
Ready.

Scores and decision threshold

Cases do not move. The vertical threshold moves and predictions flip as it crosses their scores.

ROC curve

Precision–Recall curve

Current confusion matrix